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Prelude to Larger Deal?
by Ron Ben-Yishai
- These deals are usually like an onion – layer after layer must be peeled in order to reach the core, which is also made up of several parts.
- For example, the return of the body of Israeli national Gabriel Dwait as well as the return of the Lebanese prisoner was in fact merely a cover story for the core of the deal.
- Which was the return of the bodies of two Hizbullah fighters killed in battles in Maroun al-Ras, in exchange for information on Goldwasser and Regev.
- The fact that Israel was asked to hand over two bodies in exchange for information is not a good sign. (Ynet News)
Nasrallah's Victory
by Amir Oren
- The prisoner exchange deal in the works between Israel and Hizbullah suggests that Nasrallah won the Second Lebanon War.
- If Israel releases terrorist Samir Kuntar for Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, without receiving Ron Arad or at least information about his whereabouts, the war was pointless and its cost was for naught.
- The deal represents a major and continuous failure of the IDF, the Mossad, the Shin Bet and the rest of the defense and intelligence organizations, who have not created a military alternative to the deal.
- Such an alternative means reaching the points where Regev and Goldwasser are hidden and where Gilad Shalit is kept in the Gaza Strip, and extricating them from there. (Ha'aretz)
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Israel's Dilemma
by Nahum Barnea
- Nasrallah would not have handed over any substantial information in exchange for two corpses and one mentally disturbed person. He either has no information, or he is prevented from handing over the information he has.
- Nasrallah began negotiations with great pretensions. He thought he would coerce Israel into a mass release of Lebanese and Palestinian terrorists.
- It appears that throughout the course of this year he has sobered up somewhat. He discovered that he too is being pressured by the families, and that this pressure is being transformed into political leverage.
- Had Nasrallah insisted on his initial demands, it is doubtful whether there would have been room for any deal, not even the mini exchange deal we saw last week. (Ynet News)
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