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Point-Counterpoint - Is there a likelihood of war in the Middle East this summer?

The New Lebanon Battlefield
by Alex Fishman

  • Nobody knows whether a war will break out in Lebanon this summer. Yet what is completely clear is that a war in the north – if and when such war breaks out – will not be like the war that took place there in 2006.
  •  Hizbullah is growing stronger every day, in terms of the number of fighters, quantity of missiles, and capabilities.
  • Both sides prepare for the next round in full force, yet the lay citizen doesn’t understand much of it. Well, another rocket was smuggled to Hizbullah, but it already has 40,000 anyway, so what’s the difference, people say. All the rockets are the same, the average Israeli thinks. 
  • It’s important that we understand that M-600 missiles in Hizbullah’s possession are not just another item in its arsenal. The accurate missiles possessed by Hezbollah are meant to destroy strategic targets in central Israel. 
  • The objective of the thousands of long-range missiles accumulated by Hizbullah would be to sow pure terror among civilians and undermine our willingness to fight. (Ynet News)


Missiles, Missiles Everywhere
by Chuck Freilich

  • Recent reports indicate that Syria has transferred Scud missiles to Hizbullah. While still not fully confirmed, there is little doubt that the reports are accurate.  Not for the first time, Syria is playing with fire. 
  • Far more worrying than the missiles themselves is the expression of Syrian intent, whether calculated or not. Provision of the missiles is clearly a provocative act, one that Syria knows will be of deep concern to Israel, especially coming on top of both its and Iran's already massive supply of weapons.
  • Lebanon is a tinderbox as is and Syria is stoking the fire. For Hizbullah another round is a question of when, not if.  (bitterlemons)


Israel to Syria: We Have No Plans to Attack
by Barak Ravid

  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak conveyed their assurances to Syria to the effect that Israel has no intention of attacking it.
  • Amid tension with Damascus, they asked Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos, who is now visiting Israel, to give the message to Syrian President Bashar Assad.
  • Netanyahu said last month that rumors about a planned Israeli military action against Syria were likely spread by Iran and Hizbullah as an attempt to distract the international community from the bid to impose sanctions on Iran.
  • Moratinos said at a meeting with President Shimon Peres  that tension between Israel and Syria had increased during his previous visit to Israel in February as well. "Last time I was in Damascus, after visiting Israel, I met Assad and he was on the verge of hysteria for fear of an Israeli attack," Moratinos said. (Ha'aretz)